ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern. Few data are available on the duration and prognostic factors of the disease. We aimed to study the recovery time among a Tunisian cohort of COVID-19 confirmed patients and identify the prognostic factors. METHODS: A retrospective, nationwide study was conducted from March 2 to May 8, 2020, recruiting all patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19, by RT-PCR methods, in Tunisia. Data were collected via phone call interview. Kaplan-Meir Methods and Cox proportional hazards regression models were, respectively, used to study the recovery time and estimate its prognostic factors. RESULTS: One thousand and thirty patients with COVID-19 (aged 43.2 ± 18.2 years, 526 female (51.1%)) were enrolled. Among them 141 (14.8%) were healthcare professionals. Out of 173 patients (17.8%) admitted to the hospital, 47 were admitted in an intensive care unit. Among 827 patients who didn't require specialized care, 55.5% were self-isolated at home, while the rest were in specialized centers. Six hundred and two patients were symptomatic. A total of 634 (61.6%) patients have recovered and 45 (4.4%) patients died. The median duration of illness was estimated to be 31 days (95% CI: [29-32]). Older age (HR = 0.66, CI:[0.46-0.96], P = 0.031) and symptoms (HR = 0.61, CI:[0.43-0.81], P = 0.021) were independently associated with a delay in recovery time. Being a healthcare professional (HR = 1.52, CI: [1.10-2.08], P = 0.011) and patients in home isolation compared to isolation centers (HR = 2.99, CI: [1.85-4.83], P < 10¯3) were independently associated with faster recovery time. CONCLUSION: The duration of illness was estimated to be 1 month. However, this long estimated duration of illness may not equate to infectiousness. A particular attention must to be paid to elderly and symptomatic patients with closer monitoring.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/virology , Child , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , RNA, Viral/metabolism , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Survival Rate , Tunisia/epidemiology , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Describing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia. METHODS: We collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29-May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of Rt. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66-5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23-0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in Rt in response to the combined lockdown interventions. The Rt moves from 3.18 [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 2.73-3.69] to 1.77 [95% CrI 1.49-2.08] with curfew prevention measure, and under the epidemic threshold (0.89 [95% CrI 0.84-0.94]) by national lockdown measure. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia.